While the longest government shutdown in U.S. history is officially over, experts are warning that it could take the federal enterprise months – or even years – to recover from shutdown-related disruptions.
President Donald Trump signed a funding package late Wednesday, ending the government shutdown and extending government funding through Jan. 30, 2026. However, if Congress fails to reach a funding agreement by that date, another shutdown could be on the horizon.
“Industry commends Congress and the White House for restoring appropriations,” James Carroll, CEO of the Professional Services Council (PSC), said in a Nov. 12 statement. “Yet we know from history that departments and agencies – and their contracting partners – will continue to feel the impact of this shutdown for months to come.”
“For example, there are challenges in digging out from back-logged invoices, rescinding stop work orders, and flowing payments throughout the supply chain. These challenges can be significant,” Carroll added.
According to a shutdown fact sheet from PSC, for each calendar day that the government is shut down, it takes roughly three to five days to restart operations to pre-shutdown levels. Therefore, PSC estimates that it could take the federal enterprise more than four months – sometime in mid-March 2026 – to recover from shutdown-related disruptions.
The nonpartisan, nonprofit Partnership for Public Service also warned that the shutdown has inflicted broader, long-term damage on the federal government.
“There has been much harm done by our political leaders, and it could take months or even years for the federal workforce to undo the damage caused,” Partnership for Public Service President and CEO Max Stier said in a Nov. 12 statement.
For example, Stier told reporters last week that one of his biggest concerns is the strain on federal employees.
Thousands of federal workers were furloughed or forced to work without pay during the shutdown. The Trump administration also took the unprecedented step to lay off thousands of employees amid the shutdown – a move that a federal judge halted temporarily and that Congress reversed in the continuing resolution.
Those layoffs came after the Trump administration conducted mass reductions in force (RIFs) earlier this year following an executive order from President Donald Trump.
Many technology experts have also warned that the shutdown could especially impact the federal IT workforce, because workers may choose to leave government service for a private sector job that offers reliable and higher pay.
“Morale, I think, is in a terrible place,” Stier said. “As a result, many talented people likely have already thrown in the towel, and many more are likely to do so.”
As government agencies reopen this week, Stier said agency leaders “must re-engage their employees, rebuild morale, and prioritize the public’s needs when managing backlogged work.”
PSC is urging agency leaders to restart invoice processing and payments as quickly as possible in order to help out the contractor community that supports federal missions. Unlike federal employees, there is no federal law that guarantees back pay for federal contractors.
The trade association is also calling on agency heads to rescind stop work orders as soon as possible and take contracting actions – such as awards – to “help infuse the federal marketplace with much-needed work – and confidence in federal contracts.”
“As the government reopens, it’s critical that agencies pay invoices and restart work swiftly – and thus send a strong message that contractors and their work for the American people are valued,” said PSC President Stephanie Sanok Kostro.